Showing posts with label Khomeini. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Khomeini. Show all posts

15 January 2026

Why Socialists and Anti-Imperialists Should Support the Iranian Protest Movement Against the Regime and Defend the Regime Against Israel and US Imperialism

Liberation for the Palestinians and the people of the Middle East Will Not Be Achieved on the Backs of the Oppression of Iranian Workers, Women and Youth

We are witnessing the biggest rebellion of Iranians against the theocratic regime in Iran for decades. Whether the regime succeeds in repressing the demonstrations and surviving is an open question. I suspect, at least in the short term, it will survive because the Iranian state's repressive apparatus bears many similarities to those of classical fascism, e.g. in its abolition of trade unions and there is no strong or coherent opposition.

Let us be clear at once for the benefit of the 'anti-imperialists' who have forgotten what socialism means. Socialism is the emancipation of the working class and oppressed not the dictatorship of a theocratic regime.

As the statement of the independent Iranian trade unions make clear, neither Israel nor the United States are in the slightest bit interested in freedom for the Iranian masses. Both states were more than happy to support the vicious repression under the Shah of Iran, whose son Reza Pahlavi they are trying to bring back. The BBC as always is happy to act as their propaganda stooge.

Threats of military action and bombing by the US and Israel, far from weakening the regime, have the opposite effect by forcing people to rally round it. The cynicism of the genocidal Zionist regime and Trump’s neo-cons beggars belief.

This is the BBC's 'Balance'

The regime of Supreme Ruler Khameini and President Masoud Pezeshkian has been responsible for the murder of thousands of protesters, with the security forces using machine guns and live fire. It is impossible at this time to estimate how many people have been killed but it must run into thousands.

It is now resorting to mass hangings of protesters in an effort to coerce and intimidate the opposition.

There is no doubt that Israel and Mossad have played a part in the protests, but I also have no doubt that Israel has hyped its presence and operations for propaganda reasons.  I find it strange that those who usually doubt everything Israel says are now willing to believe these pathological liars.

It would be a grave mistake to believe that the demonstrations are the creature of Israel. People are on the streets because they have their own grievances with a dictatorial, corrupt and repressive regime.

Israel and the US want to see an end to the Iranian regime but what they don’t want is a democratic society to emerge in its place. Their problem is in finding a replacement which is why Trump’s words have not, so far, matched his actions. The last thing Trump, Israel and the West want is popular sovereignty.

Iran’s regime has its own neo-liberal agenda. Indeed its response to the sanctions has been to further privatise the economy, the exact opposite of what a socialist oriented regime would do. It is the poor in Iran who have paid the highest price for sanctions

Iran’s response to decades of sanctions has involved a turn to market-based policies rather than the socialisation of the economy. The state has pursued privatisation and liberalised certain market mechanisms, resulting in ‘crony capitalism’.

To withstand sanctions, Iran adopted a "resistance economy" strategy. This has integrated neoliberal-style policies, such as: 

·         Privatisation of State Assets: Successive governments have targeted the sale of state-owned enterprises to reduce government spending and settle debts.

·         Subsidy Reform: In late 2025, the government further reduced cash subsidies for energy and food, shifting toward a "ration-style voucher" system to manage fiscal deficits.

·         Price Deregulation: Major industrial producers in sectors like petrochemicals and metals are increasingly allowed to sell at international market prices domestically to maintain profitability despite sanctions. 

Iran’s privatisation efforts have largely benefited quasi-governmental entities. 

·         Institutional Control: Many 'privatised' firms were transferred to institutions linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) or supreme leader-controlled foundations (bonyads).

·         Oligarchy and Corruption: These policies have fostered a "crony capitalist" system based on nepotism, where the powerful maintain control over wealth while the middle and working classes face extreme inflation—projected to reach 60% in 2026. 

The entrenchment of neoliberal ideology and policies has been an alternative to developing effective economic strategies to shield the working class and small craftsmen from the devastating effects of sanctions. Rather than adapting policies to protect vulnerable economic sectors, the establishment has doubled down on two core positions:

1.   Accelerating neoliberal policies

2.   Pursuing compromise with US imperialism, primarily to attract foreign investment.

See Neoliberalism Against Revolution: Iran’s Challenges for Resistance

The hypocrisy of Israel and the United States over the death of protesters is to be expected. However it would be a mistake to take their posturing as reflecting their true views. Israel has perpetrated a genocide of tens of thousands of people in Gaza. The US and the Trump regime has funded and supplied weapons for that genocide. They are hardly likely to be concerned about the death of Iranian protesters.

The ‘support’ of Israel and the US for the demonstrations and protests is cynical and self-serving. Both states are the partners of vicious dictatorial regimes all over the Middle East. The only disagreement they have with Iran’s clerical regime is in its independent foreign policy and its opposition to Israeli hegemony in the region.


There is a section of the anti-imperialist left, represented by people like Max Blumenthall, who take the view that the enemy of my enemy is my friend. This is a  mistake. The same people supported the Ba’athist regime of President Assad of Syria and we know how that turned out.


Anti-imperialism can never be successful when it relies on regimes which are hated by their own people. In the long term this can only strengthen the Israeli state. It allows Zionism and US imperialism to pass themselves off as the friends of the Iranian people.

The origins of the Islamic Republic lie in collaboration with the United States in order to thwart a genuine revolutionary challenge to capitalism and exploitation. This is not surprising since the clerical regime that emerged was based on the Bazaaris, the merchants and shopkeepers of the traditional marketplaces who represent a powerful and heterogeneous commercial class that has functioned as a central pillar of the country's economic and political history.

On 9 November 1978, in a now-famous cable, "Thinking the Unthinkable," the US ambassador to Iran, William Sullivan, warned that the Shah was doomed. He argued that the US should get the Shah and his top generals out of Iran, and then make a deal between junior commanders and Khomeini.

Sullivan's suggestions caused friction with Jimmy Carter but by early January 1979 Carter had concluded that the Shah had to go.

While the U.S. did not formally support Khomeini, historical evidence confirms that the Carter administration engaged in secret diplomatic negotiations with him in January 1979 to ensure an orderly transition and prevent a radical leftist or workers revolution from taking hold. 

In 1979 during the Iranian revolution the US effectively backed Khomeini for fear of a workers revolution. Khomeini initiated a dialogue with the Carter administration to secure his return to Iran and prevent a military coup that might have kept him from power. 

From January 15 to 27, 1979, direct talks occurred in Neauphle-le-Château, France, between Khomeini’s chief of staff, Ebrahim Yazdi, and U.S. diplomat Warren Zimmermann. On 27 January Khomeini told the US just weeks before the overthrow of the Shah's government:

It is advisable that you recommend to the army not to follow Bakhtiar (...) You will see we are not in any particular animosity with the Americans. (...) There should be no fear about oil. It is not true that we wouldn’t sell to the US. (...)

The primary goal of Carter was to preserve US interests and prevent civil war and an opening to Soviet influence. U.S. policy makers believed they could "do business" with the incoming regime, especially with moderate, Western-educated figures like Yazdi and Ayatollah Mohammad Beheshti, who were close to Khomeini at the time

Their major fear was of a potential communist or socialist takeover, which was a real possibility given the strength of the working-class movement and the influence of the USSR. Accommodating Khomeini was seen as a way to prevent Iran from falling to the left. 

The primary U.S. motivation for communicating with Khomeini was the fear of a power vacuum that would benefit the Tudeh (Communist) Party or Marxist guerrillas. There were three components to US strategy:

·         The "Soft Landing" Strategy: U.S. officials, including National Security Advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski, feared a chaotic collapse of the state would invite a Soviet invasion or a takeover by local Marxist groups.

·         Khomeini’s Guarantees: From exile in France, Khomeini sent messages to the White House promising that he was not anti-American and that an Islamic republic would be a "stable" bulwark against communism.

·         Neutralizing the Military: To avoid a bloody civil war that leftists might exploit, the U.S. sent General Robert E. Huyser to Tehran to convince the Shah's generals not to launch a coup against the burgeoning revolution. This effectively cleared the path for Khomeini's return. 

Suppression of the Working Class and Leftists

Below is a Collective Statement of Independent Iranian Organizations  and Trade Unions opposing both the threats from Israel and US imperialism and the Islamic regime.  It is a statement that puts to shame all those 'anti-imperialists' like Miller, Galloway and Blumenthall who forget that imperialism is the projection of western capitalism and its concomitant political domination of weaker countries. 

Capitalism is the source of the oppression of workers and peasants, be it the American or the Islamic version. To support the Iranian regime when it is waging class war against its own workers and people is unforgivable.

Once in power, Khomeini moved aggressively to dismantle the secular, working class and socialist movements that had participated in the revolution:

·         Crushing the Left: By 1983, the regime had totally crushed the Tudeh and Fedayeen parties, executing thousands and imprisoning hundreds of thousands of political opponents.

·         Banning Trade Unions: The new regime banned trade unions and independent workers' councils (shoras), replacing them with state-controlled "Islamic Labor Councils" to ensure control over the working class. This is exactly what Hitler did with the formation of the Labour Front on 2 May 1933.

While the Iranian Constitution (Article 26) theoretically permits "professional associations," the 1990 Labour Code and subsequent government actions have replaced genuine unions with state-controlled entities. The Islamic Labour Councils are tripartite organisations involving the Ministry of Labour, employers, and selected workers chosen based on loyalty to the state.

The "Workers' House" is a state-sponsored institution that ostensibly represents workers but is widely criticized for prioritising government policy over labour rights.

·         Intelligence Sharing: Reports indicate that even after the 1979 revolution, the U.S. provided the Khomeini regime with a "hit list" of Tudeh members in 1983 to help eliminate Soviet influence in Iran.

·         Leading global labor bodies like the International Trade Union Confederation (ITUC) rank Iran in their worst category for workers' rights.

Fear of a Leftist Takeover

·         Communist Strength: Various communist organisations, particularly the Tudeh Party, had significant support, including among the crucial oil workers, and posed an existential threat to both the Shah's regime and the nascent Islamic revolutionary government.

It was unfortunate in the extreme that after 1979 the Tudeh Party supported Khomeini until he turned on them.

·         Soviet Influence: During the Cold War, the U.S. was committed to preventing Soviet expansion. A communist Iran, with a shared border with the USSR, was a major strategic concern.

·         The Power Vacuum: The working-class movement, organised through factory councils known as shoras, had effectively taken control of key industries, including the oil sector, which paralysed the economy and created a power vacuum.

·         Khomeini's Assurances: Khomeini's secret messages to the Carter administration included assurances that he had no "particular affinity" for the Soviet Union and that an American presence was necessary to counterbalance Soviet influence. These messages made U.S. policymakers believe that they could work with the Islamists to maintain a non-aligned Iran. 

Today, unlike in 1979, the left is weak. That is the central problem facing the current demonstrations. Without a strong workers’ party it is difficult to see an alternative government arising.

Anti-imperialists see the present uprising in terms of, above all, the Palestinian question and Gaza. This is understandable but misplaced.

Iran’s anti-imperialism has been forced on the regime primarily by the opposition of the US and Israel to the regime. In order to preserve its power the Iranian regime constructed the Axis of Resistance, which today lies in ruins.

Hezbollah, an indigenous resistance movement, which arose out of Israel’s invasion of Lebanon in 1982, has been severely weakened with the assassination of Nasrallah, its leader and the pager attack. Whether it will be able to respond to a renewed Israeli attack on Lebanon, which the US is trying to reconfigure by disarming  Hezbollah, is open to question.

Hezbollah was the jewel in the crown and was heavily engaged in supporting Assad in Syria at Iran’s behest. With the overthrow of Assad the route from Iran to Lebanon for arms supplies has been largely halted.

Hamas in Gaza undoubtedly obtained some help from Iran but it is noticeable that since October 7 Iran has not done anything to support the Palestinians facing Israel’s genocide. Even when it had a chance, when Israel sued for a ceasefire, Iran did not make its agreement conditional on an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza.

The reality is that the Iranian regime has been in confrontation with imperialism and Israel despite itself. We should not forget that from 1981-86 Israel was supplying Iran with weapons in what became known as the Iran Contra Affair.

Whether or not the Iranian regime survives, one thing is for certain. That it will continue to be a friend of the Palestinians only so long as it deems it in its interests.

The Islamic Regime is a Barbaric Regime

The Iranian regime, with its rate of executions estimated to have doubled to 1,500 last year, is a barbaric state. It has the second highest number of executions of any state after China. Its method of execution, hanging from a crane, strangulation, is also the most barbaric.

The human rights record in Iran includes the persistent use of torture and what Amnesty International called a ‘Wave of floggings, amputations and other vicious punishments.’ Iran is certainly not a model state for socialists or anti-imperialists to idolise.

As regards the current clashes between the Iranian state and protestors, I have no doubt at all that the regime is using massive, lethal violence against the demonstrators. Amnesty International talks about:

a coordinated nationwide escalation in the security forces’ unlawful use of lethal force against mostly peaceful protesters and bystanders since the evening of 8 January....

Verified audiovisual evidence depicts severe and, in some cases, fatal injuries, including gunshot wounds to the head, including eyes, as well as individuals lying motionless on streets or being carried away amid what is believed to be continued sound of gunshots. Other footage shows patients bleeding profusely or appearing lifelesson hospital floors. In several videos, the people filming state that individuals have been killed.

At least two videos show security forces chasing and directly firing at fleeing protesters who appear to pose no threat warranting the use of force, let alone firearms or other prohibited weapons.

In an account shared with Amnesty International, a journalist from Tehran said:

“Tell the world that unspeakable crimes are being committed in Iran… Tell the world that if they do nothing, they [authorities] will turn the country into a graveyard.”

There are shills for the Iranian state like David Miller who, whatever the state does, however many people it hangs, it can do no wrong. 

the Islamic Republic of Iran is on the front lines of anti-imperialism and is actually the main defender of human civilisation that we have left.

There is no reasoning with such nonsense just as talking to 99% of Zionist apologists for genocide is like conversing with a brick wall.



 Israeli Involvement in the Protests

A favourite argument of Miller,  Blumenthall and others is Israel’s claims of massive involvement in the Iranian protests. There is no evidence for this.  It is an attempt by Israel to recover from some of the damage caused by their genocide in Gaza and to pretend that for once they are on the side of human rights.  

Quite frankly I don’t believe half of the nonsense that they and their hasbarists are putting out. It serves Blumenthall and others to go along with this narrative but it is a narrative at the expense of the Iranian people for whom Israel doesn't give a damn.


I agree (for once) with Owen Jones. It is using the thousands of dead and murdered Iranian people for its own racist and genocidal purpose.  But nothing will make Zionism or Genocide smell more sweetly.  It is useful for Blumenthall and others to latch on to Israeli claims but why believe Israel now when normally we call them liars?

As I said at the beginning, our support for the Iranian state is only against imperialism and Zionism not its own people.

A Region Wide Strategy

The original mistake of the PLO was to always believe that it could become just another Arab regime, as we see with the Palestinian Authority today. Their trust in the Arab regimes was entirely misplaced.

It is also clear that a military strategy against Israel is also doomed. What then?  Is Israel invincible?  I don’t think so.  In addition to its own internal problems with deep divisions in its settler population which the attack on Gaza, Lebanon and Iran have hidden, there is the danger of over extending itself as it invades yet more countries.

The main use of Israel to imperialism has always been its ability to help neuter radical Arab regimes and come to the aid of quisling ones like Jordan. Israel’s utility to imperialism comes from its role as a counter-revolutionary state in the heart of the Middle East.

The real question is to develop a strategy aimed at toppling the main Arab client regimes of the United States, in particular Egypt and Saudi Arabia. Iran does not provide a model to the people of the Middle East. Nor does it seek to overthrow  any of the surrounding regimes. It looks for co-existence with them in much the same way as it would like to co-exist with the United States.

The overthrow of the Arab regimes is the key to the overthrow of Zionism and imperialist influence in the Middle East.  There is no other way.

Tony Greenstein 

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27 September 2024

Full Support for the Lebanese Resistance in its Fight Against Israeli State Terrorism - The War Against Zionism Can Only Be Won with the Overthrow of the US's Client Arab Regimes

 The Iranian Regime Has Demonstrated That It Is A Paper Tiger – Its Rhetoric in Inverse Proportion to its Actions


Last week’s pager attack on Lebanon signalled the beginning of the Lebanon war. It exposed the hypocrisy behind Western denunciations of terrorism. The triggering of explosives in 5,000 pagers, irrespective of whether the target is Hezbollah, fits every definition of terrorism. It killed dozens of civilians, including children.

As Michael Walzer, author of “Just and Unjust Wars” and co-editor of “The Jewish Political Tradition” wrote in the New York Times,

the explosions on Tuesday and Wednesday were also very likely war crimes — terrorist attacks by a state that has consistently condemned terrorist attacks on its own citizens....

the attacks, which killed at least 37 people and wounded thousands of others, came when the operatives were not operating; they had not been mobilized and they were not militarily engaged. Rather, they were at home with their families, sitting in cafes, shopping in food markets — among civilians who were randomly killed and injured.

Terrorism is

the calculated use of violence to create a general climate of fear in a population and thereby to bring about a particular political objective.

The definition in Britain’s Terrorism Act 2000 is all but useless.

1.    serious violence against a person;

2.    serious damage to property;

3.    endangering a person's life (other than that of the person committing the action);

4.    creating a serious risk to the health or safety of the public or a section of the public; and

5.    action designed to seriously interfere with or seriously to disrupt an electronic system.

No. 1 could be applied to the Metropolitan Police whose violence is a matter of record.   No. 4 could be applied to the ‘reforms’ to the NHS proposed by Keir Starmer and equally to the privatisation of the NHS by previous Tory governments for the sake of profit.  But of course western governments never think of their actions as ‘terrorist’. If endangering a person’s life is the definition then we should have no standing army!  Not in itself a bad idea.

I would define ‘terrorism’ as the use of violence and terror against a population, for political reasons. The classic non-state terrorist groups are ISIS and Al Qaeda. Groups which have a substantial political base such as the IRA, the ANC and PLO were not terrorist though all of them were called that at the time. Terrorists don’t win elections and don’t have a mass base.

Amnesty International posted this report of Israel’s pager attack:

Another witness who was shopping in the southern Beirut suburb of Borj al-Barajne when she saw women and children screaming and running, described the scenes as apocalyptic. “People were running all around me, but my legs couldn’t move,” she said. She later saw young men lying on the ground and dozens of ambulances arriving.

People were running all around me, but my legs couldn’t move

A witness to a pager explosion in Beirut

Amnesty International’s Evidence Lab analyzed 12 videos showing the pagers exploding in crowded civilian areas, such as residential streets and grocery stores, as well as in people’s homes. A verified video of the skyline of Beirut show large smoke plums over at least 10 locations in residential areas.

Lebanon’s Minister of Health, Dr. Firas Abiad, described the attacks as “the epitome of indiscriminate attacks” adding many caused “life-changing injuries”.

Israel's Bombing of Lebanon - same old story

One witness confirmed to Amnesty International media reports stating the pagers beeped before detonating causing some people to bring them up to their faces to check the screens. A mechanic in Sour described how a friend’s pager started beeping:

He took it in his hands, I was looking at it, and it said ERROR. I turned around to get my cigarettes, and I was still right next to him, and then the pager exploded. He lost his hand and both his eyes.

It is not only Hezbollah fighters who were killed and injured but civilian employees of Hezbollah including health workers. Not that there is any justification for targeting Hezbollah members in this indiscriminate way.

The silence of the world’s leaders – Biden, Starmer, Scholtz etc, is deafening. International law only applies to the enemies of the West, never its friends.  Because there is no doubt that the planting of booby traps is explicitly outlawed.

The use against civilians of booby traps is prohibited by the Protocol on Mines, Booby-Traps and Other Devices. Article 2 of the 1980 Protocol II to the Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons provides that a “Booby-trap” means

any device or material which is designed, constructed or adapted to kill or injure, and which functions unexpectedly when a person disturbs or approaches an apparently harmless object or performs an apparently safe act”

It is understandable therefore that Lebanese Resistance, taken by surprise with many of its members injured and killed, has not yet been able to co-ordinate its response to Israel’s savage bombing.

As is normally the case, Israel’s bombing has primarily focused on and killed civilians. Only today the United States announced a further $8.7 aid to Israel. There is no war, no act of aggression, no war crime or atrocity by Israel that the United States will not support.


US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken simply lied to Congress about reports from the U.S. government’s two foremost authorities on humanitarian assistance, which concluded that Israel had deliberately blocked deliveries of food and medicine into Gaza.

The U.S. Agency for International Development delivered its assessment and the State Department’s refugees bureau made its stance known in late April. Because U.S. law requires the government to cut off weapons shipments to countries that prevent the delivery of U.S.-backed humanitarian aid, the U.S should have cut off military aid. In fact it expanded it.

Blinken and Biden did not accept either finding. On May 10 Blinken stated to Congress that:

“We do not currently assess that the Israeli government is prohibiting or otherwise restricting the transport or delivery of U.S. humanitarian assistance.”

USAID had sent Blinken a detailed 17-page memo which described instances of Israeli interference with aid efforts, including killing aid workers, razing agricultural structures, bombing ambulances and hospitals, sitting on supply depots and routinely turning away trucks full of food and medicine.

Despite the ruling of the International Court of Justice that Israel was ‘plausibly’ committing genocide and its later order to Israel to halt its offensive in Rafah and the ICJ’s later ruling that Israel’s occupation of Gaza and the West Bank were illegal Israel has ignored the rulings of the world’s highest court. International Law has been shown to be completely useless when it comes to preventing genocide because it has no effective mechanism to implement its decisions.

In Lebanon we can also assume that whatever war crimes Israel is planning will also be ignored. Israel’s launching of an aggressive war against Lebanon is a war crime. This issue was considered by The International Military Tribunal at Nuremberg to be the ‘supreme international crime’. It led the Court to issue 12 death sentences against the major Nazi war criminals in 1947.

To date the Lebanese Resistance, which opened a second front on the border with Israel in solidarity with the Palestinian resistance in Gaza, has been careful to limit its attacks to Northern Israel and military targets whereas Israel has deliberately targeted civilians in South Lebanon as a way of creating a buffer zone.

To date the response of the Lebanese Resistance has been cautious and hesitant given its reported stockpile of 200,000 missiles. Of course it is difficult to know what effect the pager attack has had but it is likely that the resistance is calibrating its response to Israel’s attacks. If this is true it may prove a costly mistake. The longer Israel carries out its bombing campaign the likelier it will be that it destroys the missiles and their launchers.

What is more likely to bring Israel’s military to heel will be the launching of 1,000 or 2,000 missiles a day. The Iron Dome missile defence system would be overwhelmed. Targets need to be widened to cover economic infrastructure such as oil refineries, energy and airports.

The Lebanese Resistance also needs to make it clear that if Israel continues to target civilians then it will not consider itself bound by the Geneva Convention on war. In Gaza Israel has attacked hospitals, schools, churches, mosques – indeed every facet of civilised life. The Resistance cannot afford to show restraint when the word doesn’t even appear in the Zionist dictionary.

Thousands of mosques, churches, homes, restaurants, colleges and other buildings have been turned to rubble across the Gaza Strip as the Israel-Hamas war continues.

What will be crucial also will be the assistance of other Arab groups. With the exception of the Houthis, all Arab states to one degree or another wish to please or come to terms with U.S. imperialism. This includes Iran and Syria. Although Iran’s’ support for Hezbollah in terms of weapons supply has been crucial to their ability to continue to fight Israel, this has been done, not because of solidarity with Lebanon and the Palestinian people but because Iran wishes to extend its influence in the Middle East. Iran has attempted on numerous occasions to try and reach an agreement with the United States, most notably the Nuclear Agreement with President Obama that Trump tore up. It has already made its peace with Saudi Arabia.

Iran’s problem has always been that Israel wants to be the unchallenged hegemon in the region. Because Israel is the United States’ attack dog, whose purpose is to intimidate any radical Arab group or movement, there will never be a chance that the US will agree to its peace feelers. The US harbours a desire to return to the days of the Shah of Iran, who was the US’s favourite dictator.

The Iranian regime is not therefore interested in solidarity for its own sake. It is not a revolutionary or even a progressive regime.  On the contrary it has waged a campaign of terror and oppression against its own people: women, workers, national and religious minorities (Jews are the only exception to this, thus proving the accusations of ‘anti-Semitism’ against it are nonsense).

Ayatollah Khomeini came to power in Iran in 1979 with the US’s blessing because the alternative was a revolutionary workers regime. The CIA actually enabled Khomeini at the time although later they fell out. Under Reagan Iran became embroiled in the Iran Contra Scandal when Iran paid for arms the US supplied it with knowing full well that some of the money would fund the Contras, the US-backed terrorists who were then fighting the Sandanistas in Nicargua. Israel too supplied captured PLO weapons to the US in order that the Contras could be armed. 

It is therefore no surprise that the Iranian regime has made it clear that it will not be taking part in any attacks on Israel. It has not responded to the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, the Hamas chief in Tehran despite its threats at the time.

The one thing that the US does not want is a region wide war because in such a war the complicity of its own Arab client states will become all too clear. Jordan and Saudi Arabia have been supplying Israel with goods bypassing the Houthis blockade on the Red Sea. The involvement of Iraqi Hezbollah, who would almost certainly find themselves in confrontation with King Hussein’s forces might pose a threat to an already unpopular regime. At the same time it will bring into even sharper focus US bases in Jordan and Northern Syria.

The Middle East is dotted with unpopular, repressive dictators and regimes that are in alliance with Israel. A war that sucks in forces across the region cannot but help destabilise those regimes.

In order to defeat Hezbollah Israel needs to wage a ground war as Israeli generals are already threatening. The problem with this is that the Israeli army has already proved wanting in the war against Hamas. Hezbollah fighters are vastly more experienced than Hamas fighters having fought in Syria’s civil war in aid of Syrian dictator, Assad.

In 2006 Israel troops were forced to withdraw from Lebanon when they launched a ground offensive. There is no reason to believe they will fare any better this time around.

Before the war on the Palestinians in Gaza Israel’s military had an undeservedly high reputation as an effective fighting force. But its main role in the past two decades has not been in armed combat but in maintaining a repressive military dictatorship in the West Bank.

Israel is very good at killing civilians but it finds armed opponents a much more difficult proposition. In Gaza the claim that it has lost some 370 soldiers and a few thousand injured are ludicrous. On December 2023 Israel’s claim that 1593 soldiers had been injured was shown to be a lie when Ha’aretz discovered that at the Barzilai Medical Center in Ashkelon alone 1,949 soldiers had been treated for injuries. Given that most of its tanks and armoured personnel carriers have been put out of action the figures for Israeli military deaths, 346 are ludicrous. It is likely that the Israeli military has lost at least 3,000 and probably more dead and up to 10,000 injured.

Israel’s army is already battle worn. Its reservists are now refusing further call-ups, hence the attempt to draft the Ultra-Orthodox who prefer studying the Talmud to taking part in military adventures to secure the Promised Land.

Others, like Michael Ofer Ziv have refused to fight at the horror of what he has seen.  He described to CNN how

One minute, he was looking at soundless footage of airstrikes he ordered; the next, he was on his phone watching unfiltered videos of Palestinians shrieking, carrying their loved ones who had been killed because of the Israeli military.

“This is happening in real life and has an actual effect on those people… at some point, your brain kind of cannot disconnect those two things anymore,” he said.

Once he connected those dots, there was no going back.

Asked for comment, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) told CNN that Ofer Ziv’s claims around targeting were “baseless, unfounded, and misrepresent the sensitivity, precaution, and strict obligation to international law with which the IDF selects and pursues its targets.”

If the Lebanese war does turn into a fully fledged war it could bring the very existence of Israel, as the United States’ settler colonial watchdog, into question. The genocide in Gaza, conducted in the full glare of the international media has destroyed the moral argument for Israel’s existence as a Jewish supremacist state. Our leaders may repeat clichés about ‘Israel’s right to defend itself’ but when pictures of murdered children enter peoples’ living rooms only the brain dead still accept that Gaza’s children pose a threat to a nuclear armed state.

Tony Greenstein

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